Shifting Sands in Syria: Are the Russians Retreating from Tartus?
Youβve seen the videosβor maybe you havenβt, yet. Either way, the chatter out of Syria has shifted from the usual hum of skirmishes to something potentially larger: a Russian withdrawal from Tartus, their crucial naval base in the Mediterranean. Now, I’ve watched enough firefights to know when the winds of change are blowing, and these videos, while sometimes grainy and full of static, paint a picture. They don’t show a clean handoff, a calm repositioning; they show a scrambling departure in the face of an empowered and deadly rebel force. It’s not just about some base being taken; it’s about influence, the control of supply lines, and the shifting balance of power in a region already overflowing with volatile situations. This isn’t just a βcheck-the-boxβ military exercise, there is more here to uncover, thatβs for sure. What is undeniable is these are key pieces in an incomplete, and developing story and all of us know, in war – the whole picture isn’t available until the final shots are fired.
Key Insights From the Ground
Celebration, Not Consolidation: Reports of ‘Victory Day’ rallies across Syria, organized by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, are not the kind you see when someone is in full command of the area. They indicate a power shift. The rebels’ effectiveness comes from having beaten back Assad’s forces and, more importantly, theyβve out-maneuvered Russian air power β something we havenβt seen much in recent years.
βPleasantβ Farewell? Donβt buy into the idea of some cordial, good-natured withdrawal. Videos of the Russian military convoy leaving Tartus amidst chants in Arabic and French suggest that this βfarewellβ has as much resentment in it as there are military personnel. The claim by the Kremlin that the base is still fully operational doesn’t jive with what’s being reported on the ground. It feels like spin to cover a rapidly deteriorating situation.
The Scramble Is Real: Multiple reports of increased flights between Russia and Syria, and convoys moving toward evacuation sites, strongly suggest the Russian military is trying to get its people and equipment out ASAP. Itβs always messy when things escalate in any country, this situation in Syria seems to be no different, it seems.
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Mediterranean Power Play: The videos highlight the critical nature of Tartus for Russian influence in the Mediterranean and beyond. A loss there significantly complicates their operations and power projection across North Africa and Europe, in turn exposing their logistical flaws.
Naval Retreat: Russian warships, visible through satellite imagery, pulling away from the coast shows not bravado, but fear. They’re clearly pulling back to stay clear of any rebel threats – and possibly to position for potential return with greater effect later if a decision is made to fight for the base.
The Stakes Are High: The analysis presented, emphasizes that this isn’t just about Syria. The loss of Tartus puts Russia in a strategically unfavorable position where it faces a choice between Ukraine and broader regional control. And Russia knows they cannot fight on all fronts at the same time.
Shifting Control: With rebel factions actively present inside Tartus, along with comments from officials of the overthrown Assad regime stating the issue will be decided by βthe new authoritiesβ, shows that the dynamics on the ground in Syria have become much more complicated and a decisive moment is in hand, or quickly approaching.
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The Future Fight: More Drone Attacks
From the ground, all signs suggest that Russiaβs grip on Syria is loosening, whether they care to admit it or not. The fact of Russian navy vessels leaving shorelines speaks volumes to the state of play. Drone attacks are sure to become a key part of these new dynamics, from both sides, as all conflicts have shown to evolve in recent times. The technology is accessible and powerful, particularly in asymmetric conflicts. We could see rebel forces increasing drone attacks, aiming to cripple Russia’s ability to extract their assets. Russia’s strategy is likely going to depend entirely on what happens at home in Russia, regarding their operations in Ukraine. Will Russia commit further in Syria and risk greater loss, or are they going to cut their losses? The answer could determine the trajectory for long term influence within the middle east and Africa. Regardless of outcome, it is more then evident that this battle has shown to have a life of its own, and has evolved in unforeseen ways.
The Full Story: Dive Into The Videos
These video snippets offer raw footage into the volatile and dynamic situation unfolding in Syria right now, giving us access to an area that most wouldn’t be able to see otherwise. I urge you, don’t just take my word for it; see what’s developing for yourselves. Scroll down, watch the highlights, and draw your own conclusions from the footage as this story develops.
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Russian forces retreat as celebrations fill Syriaβs streetsChannel 4 News1,345,724 views | 11,668 | December 13 2024 19:26:15 (3,585 comments)[ Read more … ]
It’s been a day of celebration across Syria.
(Subscribe: https://bit.ly/C4_News_Subscribe)
Setting aside their fears for the future, tens of thousands of people poured into squares after Friday prayers for mass ‘Victory Day’ rallies – invited there by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – the rebel group whose lightning offensive ousted the Assad regime. The rebels’ most potent enemy was not Assad’s forces, but Russian armour and airpower. Today, a huge Russian military column withdrew north from Damascus.
Correspondent: Lindsey Hilsum
Filmed and edited by Soren Munk
Produced by Rob Hodge
Rebels bid farewell with βpleasant wordsβ to Russian military convoy leaving TartusΒ baseΒ inΒ SyriaKanal13155,220 views | 2,266 | December 13 2024 00:30:04 (552 comments)[ Read more … ]
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Footage of the military equipment of the Russian army leaving the Syrian city of Turtus has been spread. The Russian convoy included “Patrol-A” armored vehicles, Kamaz-43269 “Vistrel” military truck with MB2-03 military module and 82-A armored personnel carriers. Slogans were chanted in Arabic and French as the column passed through the area where the rebels were stationed. Russia claims that the military did not leave the base in Tartus, and that both bases in Tartus and Khmeim are under the control of the Russian military. Turkish and Arabic-language Telegram channels wrote that Russia hastily removed all its equipment from theΒ TartusΒ base.
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Russian army canβt escape from Syria, thousands of Putin’s soldiers and equipment targeted by rebelsKanal13251,385 views | 2,482 | December 11 2024 23:00:06 (226 comments)[ Read more … ]
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More frequent rotations of cargo planes between Russia and the Russian air base at Hmeimim, as well as columns of Russian army vehicles moving along the roads, suggest that a start is being made on evacuating Russian military installations in Syria, in the wake of the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. But it will not be easy for Russia to evacuate its military personnel, as well as a large amount of weapons and equipment deployed in different parts of the country, from Syria.
A large Russian military contingent remains in Syria β at the beginning of 2024, its number, according to indirect evidence, was about 7.5 thousand people, writes the BBC. Russia operates the Tartus naval base, the Khmeimim Air Base, and other military facilities in the country.
βIn 2017, Moscow and Damascus signed an agreement on the use of bases in Tartus and Khmeimim for a period of 49 years β until 2066. However, now it is difficult to say whether Russia will retain them at all,β the journalists note, adding that the Russian leadership has also made it clear that there are no plans to use them and their fate is to be discussed with the new authorities in Damascus.
At the same time, the bases in Tartus and Khmeimim are not the only facilities where Russian military personnel are present. Journalists also emphasize that if the information previously published in the media is confirmed and the Russian command has contacted the Turkish command to agree on assistance in withdrawing troops, this will help evacuate Russian troops from remote areas of Syria, but not from all of them. In some areas where there are Russian troops, there is no Turkish presence at all.
βIn order to withdraw troops to Tartus or Khmeimim, from where they could then be evacuated to Russia, it will be necessary to negotiate with a wide variety of forces,β the publication says.
A certain amount of tension has been hovering around the Hmeimim and Tartous bases, as the Telegram channel Dva Maiora, which is close to the Russian army, reported. “We have received information that militants from Hayat Tahrir al-Shamintend to test the defenses of our Hmeimim base. Light camouflage measures lights out have been taken and personnel have taken up positionsβ, he said.
Evacuating the Russian military contingent directly from Syria will also not be easy β in addition to 7.5 thousand people, it includes a large number of weapons and military equipment, including armored vehicles and anti-aircraft missile systems. If the Russian Federation begins an urgent evacuation from Khmeimimi, this may require hundreds of An-124 and Il-76 flights in a very short time.
The water route via the naval base in Tartus is no simpler either β ships will not be able to pass through the Turkish Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits into the Black Sea.
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Rebels may seize Russia’s only naval base in the Mediterranean in SyriaKanal1335,148 views | 794 | December 6 2024 05:00:06 (84 comments)[ Read more … ]
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If Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria falls to a rebel offensive, Russia will lose its only military base in the Mediterranean. This could have dramatic consequences for Russian efforts in Ukraine, writes The Telegraph’s military commentator David Axe.
He noted that the rebels had already captured the country’s largest city, Aleppo, and were approaching the important city of Hama. If the anti-government forces were to capture Hama, they would have the prospect of advancing towards the Mediterranean coast – to the Latakia region, where the only Russian naval base on the Mediterranean Sea is located in the port city of Tartus.
Moscow has used the base since the 1970s. In 2017, Russia and Syria signed a 49-year contract that gives Moscow even greater access to Tartus. It was from here that several Russian ships sailed into the Black Sea before the full-scale attack on Ukraine.
As David Axe notes, without modern, reliable ships capable of withstanding long sea voyages, Russia is forced to rely on “coastal sailing” of its fleet from port to port. And the base in Tartus is important in this regard.
“The loss of Tartus would be catastrophic for Russian power projection in southern Europe and North Africa. Realistically, the only way for the Kremlin to replace the vital coastal infrastructure at Tartus is to restore access to the Mediterranean via the Bosphorus, closed to the Russian navy because of the war in Ukraine,” the observer notes.
According to Axe, having lost Tartus, the Kremlin may face a difficult choice: continue to fight in Ukraine and lose influence in the Mediterranean region, or make peace with Ukraine and unblock the Turkish straits for its fleet.
As reported, Syrian rebels have approached Hama , an important city on the Damascus-Aleppo highway. Hama was taken under government control at the very beginning of the civil war and has remained an important stronghold of the Assadites for the past 13 years. If the rebels capture it, this could put the Assad regime in an extremely difficult position.
Meanwhile, more and more evidence is appearing online about the rich military trophies that the rebels have captured in less than a week of the offensive. In particular, several anti-aircraft systems and many tanks have fallen into the hands of the Islamists.
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Russia fears rebel strike in Syria: Russian Navy ships moved 8 km away from TartusKanal1315,273 views | 357 | December 11 2024 07:00:06 (27 comments)[ Read more … ]
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The fate of Russian military bases in Syria, including the key port of Tartus, has been effectively sealed. According to Landsat satellite images published by OSINT analyst MT Anderson, Russian warships have retreated 8 kilometers from the shore. Russian ships left port The images, taken on December 8 and 9, confirm that all Russian ships are at anchor in the Mediterranean. Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes that the ships are leaving to ensure their safety amid the growing threat from Syrian rebels. Russian military expert Vasily Dandykin had previously said that the naval squadron had gone to the open sea due to an “unpredictable situation” in the region. The images published by MT Anderson were the first documentary confirmation of this information.
The withdrawal of Russian ships from Tartus underscores the precariousness of Russia’s position in Syria. The fate of bases, including the Khmeimim air base, remains in question. Rebels, whom Russia has been fighting for nearly a decade, now occupy key positions in the region and could launch attacks on military installations. Of particular concern are the risks of the rebels capturing Russian equipment, including Su-34 and Su-35 fighters and bombers. If the bases are not evacuated in a timely manner, the military equipment may fall into the hands of the new authorities, which will be a significant blow to the prestige and capabilities of the Russian military-industrial complex. Tartus, as Russiaβs most important base in the Mediterranean, was key to maintaining operations in the Middle East. However, the current situation shows that Russia is losing control over the region, raising doubts about its ability to maintain its influence beyond the former Soviet Union. The decision on the fate of the bases in Syria will be decisive for Russiaβs further foreign policy strategy, but it is already obvious that its position in the region has weakened.
Earlier, mdia reported that the bases in Tartus and Khmeimim will be withdrawn , Z-channels confirm the flight of the Russian Federation from Syria.
Δ°t became known that the armed opposition had entered Tartus. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister of Syria under Assad, Muhammad Ghazi al-Jalali, stated that the issue of the presence of Russian bases in Syria would be decided by the new authorities. In addition, information has appeared in the media that Russia plans to secretly transport weapons from Syria on civilian ships, since passage through the Bosphorus is closed to its military ships.
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Putin left Russian soldiers behind in Syria as navy left Tartus, SyriaKanal1373,612 views | 1,546 | December 10 2024 04:00:06 (195 comments)[ Read more … ]
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According to Russian military propagandist Alexander Arutyunov, who hosts the Z-channel Razvedos, at least one group of Russian servicemen in Syria has found themselves surrounded and cut off from their main bases in the region. The situation, he says, looks extremely critical , since there is no military way out of it. “They have no chance of breaking through on their own. There is nowhere to expect reinforcements,” writes Arutyunov, describing the situation of the cut-off servicemen. This group is presumably deprived of both air support and the ability to join up with other units.
The encirclement of Russian troops has become a symbol of the deep crisis in Russia’s Syrian campaign, which is facing serious problems amid the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The only chance to save the servicemen remains a political solution. Arutyunov expressed hope that “our compatriots will not be forgotten,” emphasizing the seriousness of the threat the group faced. “They won’t forget in the literal sense ,” he added, hinting at possible tragic consequences if Moscow fails to reach an agreement with the new forces controlling the region. The Z-propagandist does not write directly, but hints that the surrounded Russians will be able to survive only if Erdogan helps Moscow or if negotiations with the rebels take place. However, until recently, the Kremlin regime has been launching missile and bomb strikes against them and calling them “terrorists”. The chances of successful negotiations are minimal .
Russians publish videos of the rebels and write that they are preparing to attack Latakia, where the Russian Khmeimim airbase is located.
CNN Turk reports that Russia has asked Turkey to help withdraw its troops from Syria, where rebels have toppled the regime of Moscow-ally dictator Bashar al-Assad. The Kremlin is trying to withdraw all personnel from the battlefield except for two military bases.
According to the channel, Russia has already submitted a request to Ankara to help organize the safe exit of its military.
βObviously, the Russians will withdraw their manpower from the battlefield, with the exception of the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim air base,β the TV channel reports.
It appears that Russian military personnel will be sent to a region controlled by Turkish forces and then flown to Russia by air.
The influence of Iranβs puppet forces in Syria has also long since diminished, CNN TΓΌrk notes.
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