The Ghost Fleet Emerges: Inside Ukraine’s Drone Revolution
The Black Sea churns with a new kind of warfare. No longer the sole domain of massive warships and lumbering tankers, the strategic waterway has become a testing ground for a nimble, evolving threat: Ukrainian naval drones. These unmanned vessels, often small and inconspicuous, are reshaping the naval landscape, striking fear into the heart of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. From grainy video footage emerging online to expert analysis in defense publications, a narrative of ingenuity, adaptation, and escalating tensions is unfolding. These videos, captured from various perspectives – news reports, military analysts, and even open-source intelligence gatherers – offer a glimpse into the evolution and impact of this game-changing technology. Dive into this crucial turning point in naval history – where David, armed with silicon and code, confronts Goliath on the open sea.
Key Takeaways: Ukraine’s Drone Offensive
Rapid Evolution: Ukraine’s naval drone program is evolving at an astonishing pace. We’ve witnessed basic unmanned surface vessels (USVs) transform into sophisticated attack craft, some armed with rockets and even capable of engaging helicopters, as detailed in Perun’s December 2024 analysis.
Asymmetric Warfare Advantage: These drones are a prime example of asymmetric warfare, allowing Ukraine to challenge a larger, more conventionally equipped adversary. As seen in footage of the damaged Olenegorsky Gornyak being towed, even seemingly small drone attacks can significantly disrupt Russian naval operations.
Targeting Russian Infrastructure:Naval drones are being used to target key Russian assets in the Black Sea, including warships and port facilities, exemplified by the reported August 2023 strikes on Novorossiysk. CNN’s reporting provides additional context on this strategy.
Escalation in the Black Sea: The increasing use of naval drones has raised the stakes in the Black Sea, potentially influencing the grain deal and increasing international concern, as explored in Perun’s July 2023 video about the Black Sea and the naval war.
International Implications: The success of Ukraine’s drone program has garnered international attention, spurring discussion about future naval warfare and the potential proliferation of this technology. This is touched upon in various videos highlighting international news coverage and analysis.
The Future of Naval Combat: Swarm Tactics and AI on the Horizon?
The development of armed and increasingly sophisticated Ukrainian naval drones suggests several potential future trends. The use of swarm tactics, where numerous drones coordinate attacks, could overwhelm enemy defenses. Integration of artificial intelligence (AI) may lead to autonomous drones capable of independent target selection and engagement. The use of these unmanned platforms to deploy other weapons systems, such as loitering munitions, also seems likely. The international response to these developments, both in terms of military strategy and arms control, remains uncertain. However, the events unfolding in the Black Sea clearly signal a shift towards unmanned systems as a critical component of future naval arsenals. Reputable sources like the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jane’s Defence Weekly, and the U.S. Naval Institute News provide valuable context and expert opinions to understand these evolving trends.
Dive Deeper: Unmasking the Drone War
The videos below provide a firsthand look at the evolving dynamics in the Black Sea, offering crucial insights into Ukraine’s naval drone program and its implications. Scroll down to explore the footage and analyses that are shaping our understanding of this critical new front in modern warfare. Don’t just read about history – witness it unfold.
Continue reading to see the videos
‘Faster than anything else in the Black Sea’: See Ukraine’s latest sea droneCNN2,184,825 views | 18,823 | July 29 2023 01:45:00 (3,712 comments)[ Read more … ]
Ukraine’s new piece of arsenal, a sea drone, is designed to attack Russia in the Black Sea. CNN’s Alex Marquardt reports. #CNN #News
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The Black Sea & The Naval War in Ukraine – Drones, Grain, Blockades & the Bridge to CrimeaPerun686,809 views | 25,516 | July 30 2023 12:31:36 (2,919 comments)[ Read more … ]
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Description:
While the hardest fighting in Ukraine takes place on land, the Black Sea front saw a stand-off through most of 2022 and early 2023. Russia’s fleet was ranged away from the coast by AShMs, but continued to fire cruise missiles from afar.
As time has gone on, the fighting has evolved and new weapons have been deployed, including long range drones. At the same time, the deal which allowed millions of tonnes of foodstuffs to safely transit the Black Sea now seems to have ended, setting the stage for a potential escalation in fighting and a potential blockade.
In this episode, I look at the naval war in 2023, the strikes on the bridge, and the potentially vast implications of the end of the grain export deal.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats and corrections:
All standard caveats and comments apply
At one point I refer to Russia’s reasons for ‘remaining’ in the grain deal. From context I hope it’s clear I mean to refer to the decision to leave/not renew it.
Turkish efforts last year::
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/31/grain-exports-continue-despite-russian-withdrawal
US claims of russian mine laying
https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo
Reporting on grain deal
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-black-sea-grain-deal-is-all-but-dead-what-next/
https://apnews.com/article/grain-import-ban-ukraine-russia-war-85491c0420045fca26ad37907e3e0d74 (grain import bans in EU)
The CNN video of UA naval drones
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/30/europe/ukraine-drones-black-sea-intl/index.html
Reporting on Erdogan claiming the extension of the grain deal
https://www.dw.com/en/erdogan-claims-putin-agreed-to-renew-black-sea-grain-deal/a-66238371
Reporting on AU and grain deal
https://www.politico.eu/article/african-union-calls-to-reinstate-the-ukrainian-grain-deal/
Reporting on Sevastopol defences
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/04/new-defenses-show-russia-on-defensive-in-sevastopol-as-ukraine-attacks/
Opinion piece by retired US admiral on the possibility of escorting navy ships
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2023/07/26/commentary/world-commentary/russian-ukraine-grain-ships/
Australian Exports:
https://www.agriculture.gov.au/about/news/australian-wheat-export-snapshot-jan-23
Decline in UA production
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2023-02-27/agricultural-production-ukraine-has-declined-significantly
International Law Studies Vol 64, The Law of Naval Operations
The Law of Submarine Warfare Today – Jon L. Jacobson
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1756&context=ils
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Black Sea
00:01:29 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:42 — The Black Sea Campaign To 2023
00:10:39 — The Bridge
00:18:58 — The Grain Deal
00:24:19 — Cutting The Lifeline?
00:36:42 — Grain, Markets, Politics
00:42:40 — Impacting The Players?
00:50:23 — Alternative Options
00:56:51 — A New Theatre Of War?
00:59:00 — Conclusions
01:00:17 — Channel Update
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The Ukrainian Naval War (2024) – Armed drones, exports & the battle for the Black SeaPerun211,068 views | 12,112 | December 22 2024 13:20:53 (820 comments)[ Read more … ]
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Russia began its Feb 2022 invasion with a massive force advantage over Ukraine in the Black Sea – but over time we’ve seen the Russian fleet steadily pushed back by a Ukrainian strategy of sea denial driven by anti-ship missiles, reconnaissance drones and, critically, USVs (AKA naval drones)
Those drones have evolved rapidly, to the point where now we’ve seen them launching rockets or fighting back against helicopters.
So in this episode, I look at the Black Sea campaign since our 2023 update, and examine the evolution of Ukrainian USVs and the Russian response.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
CSIS on Russia’s strikes on Ukrainian Grain Infrastructure
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-renewed-attacks-ukraines-grain-infrastructure-why-now-what-next
Reporting on Vice Admiral Wikoff’s comments
https://www.voanews.com/a/houthis-undeterred-despite-us-action-to-protect-red-sea-shipping/7734735.html
Reporting on the collapse of the Grain Initiative
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/20/what-was-the-black-sea-grain-deal-and-why-did-it-collapse
USMC tests HIMARS from the deck of the USS Anchorage
https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/1351282/anchorage-conducts-high-mobility-artillery-rocket-system-shoot-during-db17
TASS (2021) on the Admiral Nakhimov
https://tass.com/defense/1281679
Neptune production
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/19/ukraine-scales-up-production-of-advanced-neptune-missiles/
Caveats & Comments:
See the pinned comment for corrections.
All normal caveats and comments apply. Including, as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon.
Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:15 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:28 — Background
00:06:39 — Battle For The Black Sea
00:14:58 — Russia Changes Tactics
00:24:53 — Drone Evolution
00:35:22 — Counter-adaptation (drones with guns)
00:43:48 — Future Trends
00:50:50 — Wider Implications
01:01:46 — Channel Update
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Russian warship towed following Ukrainian naval drone strikeThe Telegraph361,813 views | 9,421 | August 4 2023 09:30:19 (702 comments)[ Read more … ]
Footage, published on social media, apparently shows the Olenegorsky Gornyak sagging to one side and being towed away.
#ukraine #drone #russia #war
Read the full article: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/04/ukraine-russia-war-latest-news-putin-zelensky-kyiv/
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Huge explosion from Ukrainian naval drone in the Black Sea amidst strikes on Novorossiysk portThe Telegraph246,617 views | 6,012 | August 4 2023 11:26:58 (307 comments)[ Read more … ]
Footage claimed to show a Ukrainian naval drone struck by Russian defences displays a huge explosion in the Black Sea amidst strikes on Novorossiysk port
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Get the latest headlines: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
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How Ukraine’s Fastest SEA DRONE Is Terrorizing Putin’s NavyThe Military Show230,381 views | 4,027 | May 21 2024 20:00:15 (213 comments)[ Read more … ]
Unprecedented moves in naval warfare! 🚢🤯 In October 2023, Putin withdrew Russia’s Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol, facing a shocking setback due to Ukraine’s sea drones. 🌊💣 Dive into the secrets of these stealthy warriors reshaping maritime warfare! From their design to strategic impacts, uncover how Ukraine’s drones are rewriting the rules. Don’t miss out—subscribe now for more military insights! 💥🔍 #NavalWarfare #SeaDrones #BlackSeaFleet #militarytechnology #UkraineRussiaConflict #WarAnalysis #SubscribeNow #ukraine #russia #ukrinevsrussia #blacksea #blackseafleet #drone #dronestrike #dronetech
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