The Shifting Sands: How Assad’s Fall Impacts Russia’s African Footprint
The videos we’ve analyzed paint a stark picture of the ripple effects caused by the hypothetical fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. While the focus might seem geographically distant from the African continent, the implications for Russia’s ambitions in Africa are profound. These reports delve into the critical role Syrian bases played in supporting Russian operations, particularly those linked to the Wagner Group’s successor, the evocatively named "Africa Corps." From logistical hubs facilitating the movement of troops and supplies to strategic launchpads for interventions across a swathe of African nations, the potential loss of these bases raises crucial questions about Russia’s future strategy on the continent. Will Moscow be forced to retreat, or will it double down on its existing presence in countries like Libya and Sudan, despite the infrastructural and political challenges?
Key Takeaways From the Frontlines of Information
Syrian Lifeline Severed: Assad’s fall could cripple Russia’s ability to project power in Africa by eliminating vital logistical hubs in Syria used for troop deployments and resupply to the Africa Corps.
Wagner’s Next Move?: The loss of Syrian bases forces a recalibration of Russian strategy in Africa, potentially leading to greater reliance on precarious footholds in Libya and Sudan.
Credibility Crisis: The inability to secure Assad’s regime could damage Russia’s reputation as a reliable ally, potentially undermining its influence among African autocrats.
A Gambit Under Threat: The videos directly challenge the narrative of Russia’s "African Gambit," suggesting that the loss of Syrian bases significantly weakens Moscow’s hand in the region.
Algeria’s Rise: Amidst uncertainty, Algeria showcases its growing military strength with the acquisition of Russian Iskander ballistic missiles, potentially altering the North African power dynamic.
The Kremlin’s Calculus: Adaptation or Retreat?
The potential consequences of losing Syrian bases present a significant challenge for Russia’s African strategy. Moscow may attempt to compensate by strengthening ties with existing partners like Algeria, which has already significantly bolstered its military capabilities with advanced Russian weaponry, or by seeking new alliances in resource-rich nations. However, the political landscape in Africa is complex and fluid. Anti-Russian sentiment is on the rise in some regions, while others cautiously welcome Moscow’s involvement as a counterbalance to Western influence. The videos offer a critical glimpse into the potential fallout from Assad’s downfall, underscoring the fragility of Russia’s ambitions and the high-stakes game being played out across the African continent.
The Story Continues…
These videos represent just the beginning of understanding the complex web of influence and power plays unfolding in Africa. Scroll down to explore the video highlights and delve deeper into this unfolding narrative.
The videos are just below
Russia’s Bases in Syria Critical for Operations in Africa, Here’s Why | Firstpost AfricaFirstpost12,735 views | 176 | December 10 2024 15:50:41 (39 comments)[ Read more … ]
Russia’s Bases in Syria Critical for Operations in Africa, Here’s Why | Firstpost Africa
The fall of Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad is going to deal a heavy blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin, not just in West Asia but even in Africa. Russia had one airbase and one naval base in Syria and these were used by the Wagner Group, now Africa Corps, to use the Syrian bases to launch operations in Africa. From Syria, the Africa Corps would be deployed to Sudan, Libya, Chad, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. However, with Assad now living in Moscow, Putin has to rethink his strategies in Africa with the bases in Syria now completely out of operations.
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Russian base losses in Syria will affect Moscow’s ability to operate in AfricaKanal1310,848 views | 287 | December 10 2024 03:00:06 (26 comments)[ Read more … ]
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After the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia could lose its military bases located in Syria. If this happens, it could have serious consequences for the Kremlin, reports the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia has used its naval base in Tartus to project power in the Mediterranean Sea. Through this base, Moscow has threatened NATO’s southern flank and connected its Black Sea assets with the Mediterranean.
Analysts believe that the loss of Russian bases in Syria would likely disrupt Russian logistics, efforts to replenish supplies, and the rotation of the African Corps. Russian operations and power projection in Libya and sub-Saharan African countries would be particularly weakened.
In turn, Russia could attempt to use its presence in Libya and Sudan as alternatives. However, the lack of official agreements with these countries and insufficient infrastructure make them inadequate substitutes.
The ISW also added that the fall of Assad’s regime and Russia’s failure to maintain it would damage Russia’s global image as a reliable ally. This, in turn, threatens its influence over African autocrats that Russia seeks to support and undermines its broader geopolitical goal of positioning itself as a global superpower.
It is noted that in the same report, analysts concluded that the rapid collapse of Assad’s regime was a strategic and political defeat for Moscow.
Analysts remind that Russia intervened in the Syrian conflict in 2015 to protect Assad’s regime after mass protests erupted in 2011 as part of the larger Arab Spring movement. This, in turn, triggered a civil war in Syria and threatened to overthrow Assad.
At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin has long viewed the color revolutions that led to the emergence of new democratic governments in former Soviet republics as a threat to the stability and security of his regime.
Putin also broadly opposes democratic movements aimed at removing authoritarian leaders linked to the Kremlin around the world. He believes these movements undermine his efforts to create his envisioned multipolar world, where Russia and its key authoritative allies and partners play a crucial role.
Regarding Syria, analysts note that Russia’s inability or decision not to reinforce Assad’s regime amidst the rapid advance of the Syrian opposition across the country will also undermine Russia’s credibility as a reliable and effective security partner globally. As a result, this will negatively impact Putin’s ability to garner global support for the multipolar world he desires.
“The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria – a regime that the Kremlin helped prop up since 2015 – is a strategic political defeat for Moscow and has thrown the Kremlin into a crisis as it seeks to retain its strategic military basing in Syria,” the report states.
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How Assad’s Fall in Syria Affects Russia’s Africa StrategyBloomberg Television1,502 views | 26 | December 12 2024 10:01:42 (1 comments)[ Read more … ]
The collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in Syria threatens a key Russian airbase in the country that Moscow has depended on to project influence throughout Africa. Russia uses the Khmeimim air base to send personnel and military supplies to Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Bloomberg’s Ondiro Oganga breaks down the situation and what this means for Russia’s strategy.
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The SHOCKING Truth About Russia’s Africa Takeover ExposedPrince Ojong922 views | 29 | December 12 2024 03:07:52 (14 comments)[ Read more … ]
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Algeria Emerges as North Africa’s Military Powerhouse with Russian Iskander Ballistic MissilesMain Battle Tank132 views | 6 | December 9 2024 20:59:26 (1 comments)[ Read more … ]
Algeria has strengthened its military power in North Africa with the introduction of the Iskander-E ballistic missile system. Unveiled during the 2024 military parade, this Russian-made missile system highlights Algeria’s commitment to modernizing its armed forces and fortifying its defense capabilities. With a range of 280 kilometers and high precision, the Iskander-E is designed for strategic strikes against critical targets. This acquisition reflects Algeria’s ongoing defense partnership with Russia and its efforts to enhance regional security. Learn more about the Iskander-E system’s role in Algeria’s military strategy and its significance in the evolving North African security landscape.
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Shockwaves of Assad’s Fall #Syria #Assad #Russia #Military #GlobalPoliticsNewsInShorts409 views | 4 | December 10 2024 00:33:20 (0 comments)[ Read more … ]
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